Unlike us, you have a life. You can’t spend all day researching sports teams. You also don’t have the benefit of having a data science team to back you up your betting decision you make. So how should you approach the funnest and easiest way to lose all your money?
Step 1: Selectively listen to the experts. Sports giants like ESPN pay for the right to be informed as soon as an unforeseen circumstance takes place like an athlete injury or a personal issue. If you don’t have that information you’re lost before you even start.
Step 2: Ignore all the expert picks. Picture the most famous sports analyst of all time, Stephen A. Smith. The man is a living legend, entertaining for days, and a staple of analysis for many sports. But do you know his betting record over the last 10 years? Neither do I. So he could be wrong 90% of the time or right 90% of the time – we have no idea. So why would you listen to someone with an unknown track record just because he’s on TV?
Step 3: Listen to all the experts with documented winning records. It’s nearly impossible to find the betting records of famous sports analysts or personalities because it’s damn near impossible to win more than lose, and most of these so called experts have losing records. So they don’t make their cumulative record public. DraftKings purged their previous sports betting picks and analysis so hard, it wasn’t even on the Internet Archives (they may have also done this because of legal reasons).
That doesn’t mean expert picks with losing records are useless. Maybe some analysts are good at predicting home games for the Lakers even if they’re useless in predicting all other teams and sports. So you got to pick and choose when to listen to who.
We’ve done that work for you and then some. We know who’s right and when, and we combine that with the usual bullshit like player & team stats, sprinkle in a little Gut FeelTM*, put it all in an algorithm, and tell you who we think is going to win. And if you don’t trust our analysis, no problem. We summarize the picks from all the leading experts, so you don’t have to visit 10 different websites and listen to 5 podcasts to get your intel. Just go to our Prediction Section and you’re all set (we just have MMA for now, but we’ll add more sports in the future. Sign up for our news letter in the side bar (~1-2 emails a month) and we’ll keep you posted when that happens).
Step 4: Bet against your friends, not against some corporation or casino**. First of all it always feels better taking your friend’s money Even if you lose money to a friend, it always comes back around in free beers and fun trash talk. Way more exciting than clicking on bets from your mom’s basement. When you’re betting with friends, you could also throw out typical betting no-nos like betting under the influence. If your friend is also wasted, the odds are back to even and makes the whole experience more fun.
But the biggest reason not to use sportsbooks is because they will ALWAYS give you worse odds than your buddies, because the house takes a cut that’s baked into the betting lines (unless your buddy scammed you). So if you don’t use them you’ll guaranteed to win more, or lose less.
Step 5: Don’t be a fucking moron. For God’s sake track your winnings and losses. If you’re losing all the time, maybe it’s time to switch up your strategy, bet less money, or don’t bet at all if your brain is wired to be dangerously addicted to gambling. And if you’re one of the few who win all the time, maybe you want to up your bankroll.
We made this free idiot proof bankroll management spreadsheet where you can input exactly how money you have, and it’ll tell you how much money you should bet. And it adjusts every time you make or lose money. It’s an offline Excel spreadsheet so we won’t have any of your private information. Learn more about how to use it here.
Last Step: Buy Bitcoin whenever it crashes, hold 3 months of living expenses in cash, and buy your friends dinner. Those will probably give you a much better return on investment than some sports betting bullshit. But hey it’s less fun.
**If it’s legal where you live
Yes there are more complicated strategies like betting value, when to parlay, shopping lines, but who gives a fuck. If you track your wins and losses with our sheet you’ll see patterns in your wins & losses and come up with your own strategies that work for you. (And maybe we’ll cover those other betting topics in the future.)