Obviously don’t stop betting on the NFL if that’s what you enjoy. But you are pretty much never going to win in the long term in my opinon. So if you like money, maybe see if you enjoy MMA because that’s where you have the 1% chance at being profitable sports gambling.
It’s extremely tough to beat the odds in football because there are people out there who create computer programs you and I wouldn’t even know how to open. They look at everything from the type of grass to wind velocity to what color panty the quarterback’s wife was wearing. People like us on the other hand don’t even know how to spell velosity and haven’t seen women’s panties in years (or is that just me?).
You might win here and there but over time those guys will crush you and take your lunch. It’s like saying you have a shot at beating a chess world champion occasionally by playing random moves, because sometimes your random moves could turn out to be the best ones. Never going to happen.
Case in point, the world chess champion Magnus Carlsen is also a fantasy sports champion. It’s 100% NOT a coincidence that he’s better than you at both chess and sports betting. Carlsen is a once in a generation genius that takes every variable into consideration to win at chess, and that skill translates to sports betting. And you’re some average intellect guy reading the MBS Report. It’s not just me talking, research shows you don’t stand a chance.
So why is MMA betting any better?
The short answer is lack of data.
Let’s say you like betting on the Patriots to win over the Bills. The “sharp” bettors (i.e. the pros) know exactly how the Patriots’ QB performs against the Bills’ defense when they’ve had a bi-week, and the coach gave 2.6+ interviews, and the Wide Receiver mentioned the word winning less than 4 times, and the temperature is 0.5F more than average.
They know these things because they’ve collected data from every single game the Patriots played under every type of circumstance.
Lucky for us, they don’t have the same advantage in MMA. Fighters rarely fight more than 3 times a year, and facing the same opponent twice is even more unusual. Even when there’s a rematch, everything else is usually different like location, fight camp length, age, significant strikes landed and received, weight class, etc.
Also because fighters only compete a few times a year, they often experience huge jumps or drops in performance that can’t be calculated by crunching variables and numbers.
So research has to be through watching fights and training footage, making it difficult for algorithms to consistently win.
Case in point, numbers could never show how much Max Holloway improved his boxing to put a beating on Calvin Kattar in January 2021. You would have had to watch Max’s training footage, watch his sparring videos, listen to his or his coaches’ or teammates’ interviews on what he’s focusing or improving on.
Then there’s the unknown fighters. Algorithms have stats on every NFL player since they were 12.
But even at the highest level of MMA, you still get unknown fighters who come out of nowhere. And stats don’t contribute much to betting on those new guys because up until they get to the UFC, they’re facing other no name fighters. So even if they’re averaging 200 strikes on their opponents each fight, that usually doesn’t translate to the UFC where they’re facing world class opposition. So you have to watch their fights, and make a subjective determination of how their skill match up against their opponent. The more knowledgeable about fighting you are, the better you’ll be at assessing their skills.
Of course stats have their place in MMA betting. For example you could dig deep into how many strikes a fighter typically lands under certain circumstances, and bet the over/under.
But MMA is probably the only remaining sport where computers haven’t taken our and the best way to improve your win % is by educating yourself on the sport itself, and consuming more of it. Which is way more fun than the sad reality of other sports where the only way to win for the majority of people is to crunch numbers.
So give MMA betting a shot. Maybe you take it to the extreme and go train at one of the big MMA gyms like Greg Jackson where they’ll accept you as an armature and you can peak at how the pros are looking.
At the end of the day this is supposed to be fun. Unfortunately technology took the fun out for the casual sports bettor for most sports by making it a requirement to use complicated and expensive computer programs to succeed.
MMA betting is the last one standing against the machines. Get in on the fun before the computers figure it out and there’s nothing left.